Moderna revises 2025 sales forecast amid market challenges

USA – Moderna has revised its 2025 sales forecast, lowering expectations by approximately US $1 billion due to several potential challenges anticipated later this year.

The biotechnology company now projects revenue of US $1.5 billion to US $2.5 billion for 2025, with the majority of sales expected during the latter half of the year.

These earnings will primarily be driven by Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine and its newly launched respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine.

This updated guidance marks a significant reduction from the earlier forecast of $2.5 billion to US $3.5 billion issued in September.

At that time, Moderna also delayed its break-even operating cash target to 2028, citing an anticipated US $6 billion in revenue.

Shares of Moderna fell sharply in response to the announcement, closing nearly 17% lower on Monday. Other vaccine manufacturers, such as Novavax and BioNTech, also experienced declines of over 7%.

CFO Jamey Mock cited several uncertainties influencing the updated forecast. “As we head into 2025, there are a handful of uncertainties that we are planning for,” Mock told CNBC. “Right now, we’re seeing them as headwinds, though they could turn into tailwinds.”

Mock identified four key factors that could negatively impact sales. The first is increased competition in the Covid-19 vaccine market.

Moderna’s U.S. retail market share for Covid shots dropped to 40% in 2024, down from 48% in 2023, with further declines expected.

Additionally, Sanofi’s agreement to co-commercialize Novavax’s Covid vaccine worldwide could increase competition.

The second factor is declining vaccination rates. U.S. retail vaccination rates fell by around 7% during the fall of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

The remaining challenges involve the timing of manufacturing contracts with certain countries and uncertainty over whether the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will recommend RSV revaccination.

To counterbalance these challenges, Moderna plans to cut 2025 cash expenses by US $1 billion and reduce costs further by US $500 million in 2026.

“We are taking the right amount of cost to preserve our cash,” Mock stated, adding that the company remains focused on investing in and diversifying its portfolio.

This announcement comes as Moderna faces declining demand for its Covid-19 vaccine, which was its only commercially available product until the RSV vaccine launched last year. The company remains optimistic about its pipeline and plans to introduce 10 new products over the next three years.

In 2024, revenue from Moderna’s Covid and RSV vaccines met expectations, totaling US $3 billion to US $3.1 billion.

Notably, the company benefited from U.S. regulatory approval of its updated Covid shot three weeks earlier than the prior version in 2023.

However, these earnings represent a sharp decline from the US $6.7 billion generated in 2023 and the US $18 billion recorded in 2022, as fewer people opted for updated vaccines.

Looking ahead, Moderna aims to secure three product approvals in 2025, including a combination vaccine for Covid and influenza and a next-generation Covid shot.

The company’s growth strategy hinges on its messenger RNA platform, the core technology behind both its Covid-19 and RSV vaccines.

Moderna is expected to provide further details on its plans during its presentation at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, a key event for the global healthcare industry and a significant platform for industry deals.