Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema shows promising weight loss, but investors remain unimpressed

DENMARK – Novo Nordisk has released new Phase III trial data for CagriSema, its next-generation obesity drug, but the results failed to excite investors, leading to an 8% drop in the company’s stock.

The REDEFINE 2 trial tested 1,206 participants with type 2 diabetes and a mean weight of 102kg (225 lbs), evaluating the weight-loss effects of CagriSema—a combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy.

Participants receiving CagriSema lost 15.7% of their body weight over 68 weeks, compared to 3.1% for the placebo group. Additionally, 89.7% of CagriSema users lost at least 5% of their weight, versus 30.3% on placebo.

However, when using a broader statistical analysis, the weight loss was 13.7%, lower than the 15% benchmark some analysts had hoped for.

Falls short of expectations

While Novo Nordisk highlighted CagriSema’s “superior weight loss”, analysts were not convinced.

“A weight loss of 13.7% falls short of our 15+% bar that would have suggested amylin offers a differentiated profile vs. GLP-1,” Jefferies analysts commented. They believe the results could weaken confidence in CagriSema’s commercial potential.

The previous REDEFINE 1 trial, conducted on patients without diabetes, showed 22.7% weight loss, again missing the expected 25% mark.

Some analysts speculate that side effects and difficulties in dose escalation may have contributed to the lower-than-expected weight loss.

Despite the lukewarm investor response, Novo Nordisk remains confident. The company emphasized that CagriSema’s weight loss results were significantly better than placebo and that the drug had a “safe and well-tolerated profile.”

The most common side effects were mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues, which diminished over time.

Next steps for Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk expects to file for regulatory approval for CagriSema in early 2026. If approved, the drug could be a major player in the growing obesity treatment market, especially given the success of Wegovy and Ozempic.

The company is also expanding its direct-to-consumer sales strategy. Last week, it launched Novocare, an online pharmacy allowing consumers to buy Wegovy at a discounted price of US $499 per month.

Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drugs have propelled it to become one of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, and CagriSema could further strengthen its position if future trials yield better-than-expected results.